Global Airport News
So what happened to Air France Flight 447? It is early and speculation at this juncture is often wildly wrong. And remember, there are usually several factors that conspire to bring an airliner down. But here is what we do know for sure. Keep this in mind as you process the often inaccurate reporting on aviation that is so prevalent in the mainstream media.
The Timeline – The flight, carrying 216 passengers and 12 crewmembers, left Rio de Janeiro at 6:03 p.m. Sunday EDT (7:03 PM local time). It flew beyond radar coverage 3 hours and 33 minutes later (at 9:33 p.m. EDT). A half hour later (10 p.m. EDT) – now four hours into the flight – the plane encountered heavy turbulence. Fifteen minutes later (10:15 p.m. EDT), now a long way out to sea, it transmitted an automated signal indicating the plane was in serious trouble.
"A succession of a dozen technical messages (showed that) several electrical systems had broken down," according to Air France CEO Pierre-Henry Gourgeon. He described the failures, which included (most ominously) the pressurization system as a "totally unprecedented situation in the plane."
It was a dark and stormy night – in a place that is home to the world's worst thunderstorms. Just as it disappeared, the Airbus A330-203 was flying into a thick band of convective activity that rose to 41,000 feet. This equatorial region is known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone – it is where Northeast and Southeast Trade Winds meet – forcing a lot of warm, moist air upward – which condenses – an efficient thunderstorm producing machine.
The crew had "Sully-esque" seasoning – The Captain had 11,000 hours total time (1700 in the Airbus A330/A340). One Copilot had 3,000 hours total time (800 in the Airbus A330/340) and the other Copilot had 6,600 hours total time (2,600 in the Airbus A330/340).
The Airbus A330 has a good record – and this was the first crash of a twin-engine A330 in revenue service in its history. In 1994, seven employees of Airbus died when a 330 went down during a test flight. The accident report says it was a case of pilot error. The airplane that crashed last night – tail number F-GZCP – had no accidents or incidents in its history. It went into service on April 18, 2005 and had logged 18,870 hours. It was in the hangar in mid-April for routine maintenance. No serious squawks reported.
No reason to believe terrorism – while you cannot take the possibility of a bomb off the list just yet, no groups have claimed any responsibility for downing the plane. What good is a terrorist attack if the perpetrators don't, well, terrorize us?
So consider this as a possible scenario. The crew is flying toward a line of storms in the dark, out of range of land-based radar. They are equipped with onboard weather radar however – and can use it to thread their way through the bad cells if need be.
It is quite likely the airplane was struck by lightning – it could have triggered lightning by the mere act of flying at Mach .8 through storm clouds. It is not impossible that could have triggered a fuel fire – but that is highly unlikely. In fact, it has been four decades since lightning alone caused an airliner crash in the U.S. A lot of time and effort is spent protecting airplanes from the clear and present danger. And airliners get hit by lightning all the time – you don't hear about it because nothing bad happens. Remember, it is seldom just one thing that brings a modern airliner down.
